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Forum:2015-16 South Pacific cyclone season
Betting pools for this page Related Pages: *2015-16 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools) *2015-16 Australian Region cyclone season (Betting pools) Future start The 2015-16 SHem TC year has begun. Put any storms below here. Ryan1000 00:00, July 5, 2015 (UTC) 01F.NONAME Aoi: SPac Vanuatu storm the CMC,GFS,ECMWF,NAVGEM, are consistent that a weak TC will form by the end of the month. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 18:39, July 28, 2015 (UTC) 91P.INVEST and more odd winter activity. now the JTWC started monitoring of this disturbance. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 21:56, July 29, 2015 (UTC) :Typical of super Ninos. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 02:48, July 30, 2015 (UTC) last time Raquel formed in tandem with Chan-hom. this time can be Tuni-Soudelor. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:15, July 30, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Distubance 01F ok.... first time a named august storm in the SPac? the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:31, July 30, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression 01F What in the world? Despite being in moderate shear, convection is beginning to develop in 01F's eastern quadrant. Winds are set at 35 knots (40 mph) (1-min) by the JTWC based on an ASCAT pass and a PGTW Dvorak estimate. Also, RSMC Nadi is reporting a pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg), and gives it a ''low to moderate chance of development within the next couple days (in early August!). As 01F moves SE in response to an STR located to its east, it is slated to encounter SST's of 28C and reach winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-min) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph) per the JTWC. After a day or two, however, 01F should accelerate into higher areas of shear and cooler SST's, prompting dissipation in about three days or so. Odile, in the odd case 01F becomes a Category 1 TC, it may be the first August named storm for the SPAC, but I am not sure. Nevertheless, Soudelor and this depression may prompt another Kelvin wave to fuel the already strong El Niño. AndrewTalk To Me 22:11, August 2, 2015 (UTC) :Talk about defiance. Just yesterday, it looked like 01F could become a very early SPAC named storm. Now, it has been been shredded apart by increasing shear. The JTWC has lowered the system's winds to 30 knots (35 mph) (1-min) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). Since conditions are only going to worsen hereafter, the agency has stopped issuing advisories on 01F. Meanwhile, RSMC Nadi has upped the depression's pressure to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg), and despite being located in 28C SST's and having good outflow in its southern quadrant, only expects a low chance of getting named in the next 24 hours. Well, it was still nice to see a depression at this time of the year. AndrewTalk To Me 00:37, August 4, 2015 (UTC) :: actually. it has reorganized himself again. so it not officialy dead. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:25, August 4, 2015 (UTC) 02F.NONAME Tropical Depression 02F guess no one is paying attention to this basin. this thing has a TCFA already! ._. --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 15:56, October 15, 2015 (UTC) : Interesting! This depression, and the previous storm that formed in July, could be a sign of a very active season to come. But we won't see the TD receive a name, since the forecast has it about to dissipate by tomorrow. At this rate, the first named storm could come by November-ish. [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 18:26, October 17, 2015 (UTC) ::: It reached 50 mph (1min) but never got strong enough 3 minute winds to be named. Interesting to see sonething in the Southern Hemisphere already. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:58, October 17, 2015 (UTC) 93P.INVEST 93P.INVEST and another invest... --hon hon hon | hon hon hon • • 16:41, November 13, 2015 (UTC) : The JTWC gives it a "low" chance of developing, but I don't expect much here. Probably will become a TD though. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 03:25, November 16, 2015 (UTC) :: Still a low chance, and the FMS hasn't got it up as a tropical disturbance yet... '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 01:11, November 17, 2015 (UTC) ::: Died out, probably a while ago. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:51, November 20, 2015 (UTC) 03F.TUNI Tropical Disturbance 03F will Tuni come out of this? --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 15:35, November 24, 2015 (UTC) : I don't see it on JTWC yet, but hopefully Tuni does come from this '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 19:38, November 24, 2015 (UTC) ::03F has been on the JTWC outlook for about 12 hours as of this post. They comment on the system's increasing convection and organization in their latest report and estimate winds of 20 to 25 knots (20 to 30 mph) (1-min). Also, the JTWC gives a ''medium chance of TC formation in the next 24 hours. On the RSMC Nadi side, they note SST's of 29°C in 03F's vicinity, and some models predicting a little intensification for 03F, which currently has a pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg). Steve and Odile, I'm not sure which one of you two made the header, but in case you don't know, RSMC Nadi "titles" tropical disturbances the way I did above. And regarding the activity in the SPAC this year, the stakes are high for an active, if not record-breaking season. RSMC Nadi's seasonal outlook is calling for 11-13 named storms, well above the average of roughly just eight, and a 48% chance of above-average activity in the SPAC east of 165°E due to the strong El Niño. In addition, other strong El Niño years, like 1997-98, which saw a record number of tropical cyclone storms and the infamous Ron-Susan duet, and 1982-83, the season with the highest number of STC's, were very active as well. So this year could be along the lines of those two. AndrewTalk To Me 15:08, November 26, 2015 (UTC) :::It was Odile who placed the header, since I do know how RSMC Nadi titles things. The El Niño's going to cause an interesting season this year, can't wait! This system could be Tuni, hopefully. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] [[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''Happy Thanksgiving!]]' 19:20, November 26, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression 03F the 3rd is the charm! designated 04P by the JTWC (ehh forgot to sign xD) --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 20:33, November 27, 2015 (UTC) : I am anticipating it to develop into "Tuni" over the next day or so. The South Pacific season is about to really kick off, and it should be a good and active year, according to predictions. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] [[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''Happy Thanksgiving!]]' 20:35, November 27, 2015 (UTC) : The sattalite image looks like this system might turn into a tropical storm when it reaches American Samoa. Possibly in the next 36 hours. Abequinn (talk) 01:41, November 28, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Tuni finally! --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 17:32, November 28, 2015 (UTC) : I wont be surprised if Storm Surge will come to the National Weather Service office in Pago Pago, AS Abequinn (talk) 21:32, November 28, 2015 (UTC) ::Tuni is about to die soon, it is currently set at 45 mph/991 mbars. The JTWC already issued their final advisory on Tuni as it weakens and approaches dissipation. Also, Tuni is currently the only TC active worldwide, and other basins don't have a hint of TC activity at all. *epic yawn* [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 02:54, November 30, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Tuni Died a while ago, if only people could pay just a little more attention to the SHem... '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 19:39, December 5, 2015 (UTC) 04F.ULA Tropical Cyclone Ula No one updated this yet, but it's expected to become at least a cat 1 as it heads west-southwest towards Fiji. 'Ryan1000' 03:18, December 31, 2015 (UTC) : I'm predicting it could be quite powerful at its future peak. The JTWC is currently forecasting a peak strength of 75 knots, but I have a slight feeling it could get a bit more powerful than that. Some of the islands around Fiji should look out, due to the system's potential for impacts. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ��[[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''Happy Holidays!]] ��' 04:12, December 31, 2015 (UTC) ::: It's a nice looking storm, but it's a shame it can't go without impacts. Hopefully nobody dies from this storm if it insists on becoming strong. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:18, December 31, 2015 (UTC) ::: Ula is looking very good on satellite images, and although it's not updated yet it's definitely hurricane strength, and getting quite a bit stronger than forecast, with T-Numbers at T5.0/90 kts. However, this is not a good thing for any islands in it's path, especially for low-elevation cities. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:50, December 31, 2015 (UTC) ::: ::::When it's updated, I would be shocked if it's not at hurricane strength yet. The satellite presentation is great, and I still see it becoming a bit stronger than the 80 knots forecast by the JTWC. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ��[[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''2016 has arrived!]] ��' 20:51, December 31, 2015 (UTC) ::::Currently Cat. 1 strength. Winds are at 70 knots (80 mph). I can't find what the pressure is though. :/ ::::Leeboy1002016 20:32, January 4, 2016 (UTC) :::::The JTWC now has Ula at 65 knots (75 mph). Wikipedia doesn't seem to update SHem storms as they are live so I'm not sure about the pressure either. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ��[[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''2016 has arrived!]] ��' 23:01, January 4, 2016 (UTC) :::::::It's weakening now, although more gradually then originally forecast. It reached a peak intensity I think of 105mph/90kts. It still looks pretty nice, unlike storms that we've seen dissipate because all the convection gets swept aside, though. Nice storm to see. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:30, January 5, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::Wow, Ula's really hanging on! It's maintaining an intensity of 45 knots, and an eye structure still remains, with the (although weak) convection increasing in recent images. I also think conditions are staying more favorable then originally forecast, leading to slower weakening. Nice to see a Southern Hemisphere storm that lasts over 3 days! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:22, January 6, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::Ula is still out there, and even appears to be restrengthening, which is shown in the current forecast. What a fighter! Ula's also quite a small system now. Crazy difference in size compared to 1C! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:17, January 7, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::New advisory has Ula at 55 knots, and expected to regain hurricane strength on a forcast track that now keeps Ula alive until day 5. (Although as a weak TS) By then, Ula will have roamed the ocean for two weeks straight. I'm amazed at the forcast change from at one point weakening Ula from hurricane strength to dissipated in 36 hours to a forecast for restrengthening and still being tropical after 5 days. Ula's a very persistant storm! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:33, January 7, 2016 (UTC) Ula continues to exceed forecast strength predictions. New advisory has Ula back at 90 mph, and expected to reach a 110 knot peak intensity, higher than it's first peak. The forecast track also seems to start sending it back towards the place it came from. Ula's making a full comeback from almost dissipated! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:50, January 9, 2016 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula Not a bad comeback, though the track taking this as a category 3 storm over parts of the Vanuatu archapelago doesn't look good, especially after the islands suffered extreme damage after Pam last year, which was the second-strongest SPac storm on record after Zoe in 2002. Hopefully they get off easy from this one. Ryan1000 03:53, January 9, 2016 (UTC) and it just bombed to 120 knots, will it loop around the SPac? --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 03:51, January 10, 2016 (UTC) Extremely Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula Yep, wasn't exactly expecting THAT much of a comeback. The good news is that Ula is somehow magically avoiding all of the (at least major) islands. That would be fun to see Ula loop around the whole basin and make a comeback again, then getting absorbed by Pali which has crossed the equator and aiding it's strengthening... Ok, not the Pali part. But it seems unlikely even without that... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:06, January 10, 2016 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (2nd time) Looks like unfavorable conditions are finally bringing an end to long-lived Ula, which is getting sheared apart right now. Nice to see a storm that sticks around for two entire weeks! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:38, January 11, 2016 (UTC) : Never expected Ula to stick around this long, and peak at that strength! It could be one of the longest lived SPac storms in recent years. Well, we'll finally see it die down over the next few days. Bye, Ula! [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 02:51, January 12, 2016 (UTC) 07P.VICTOR Tropical Cyclone Victor has anyone noted this? --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 22:23, January 15, 2016 (UTC) : The NHem and its surprising storms like Alex has been directing our attention away. :P I see this potentially becoming really powerful, and the JTWC has it going up to as much as 115 knots in the current forecast. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 02:46, January 16, 2016 (UTC) ::: For some odd reason, Victor stopped strengthening for now. But nevertheless, Victor looks to be a powerful cyclone. The good news is that it's not supposed to hit stuff, so Victor can get as strong as it wants with no worries for anyone. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:35, January 16, 2016 (UTC) ::::: Victor isn't even trying! Victor has '''weakened '''to 80 mph, and forecast peak has been lowered to category 2. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 15:12, January 17, 2016 (UTC) :::::: I guess it doesn't want to strengthen more even though conditions are good enough. Let's be glad it isn't affecting land significantly. Forecast peak lowered to 80 knots. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 18:26, January 18, 2016 (UTC) :::::::: Looks like Victor ended up becoming too large to rapidly intensify. Victor has an eye that's 65 miles wide currently! Satellite estimates did reach T5.0, though, so Victor reached category 2 strength. I'm glad it's not affecting land, as it's such a large storm any land in it's path would be in it for a long time even though it's relatively weak. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:14, January 18, 2016 (UTC) 11P.WINSTON Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston really? its a C4 already .-. --HurricaneOdile | insert message here × × 16:19, February 12, 2016 (UTC) dvorak has it at 8.3... which is 170kn... COME ON! its nearly going to hit fiji pretty bad --HurricaneOdile | insert message here × × 18:30, February 19, 2016 (UTC) :This is going to be bad... The JTWC has it at 145 knots and Wikipedia shows a Category 5 cyclone. Seems to also become one of the strongest storms I've ever seen in the basin... the forecast is saying 160 knots is possible. There's no way to stop this thing from devastating Fiji. I hope they are prepared! '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:48, February 19, 2016 (UTC) ::It's worse now: at 185 mph, Winston has higher winds than even ZOE. I hope Fiji's handling this well, because Winston's looking like it could be catastrophic. Jake52 (talk) 03:51, February 20, 2016 (UTC) :::Hopefully Fifi's prepared all their residents for the potential catastrophe. I feel like this has potential to be one of their worst storms in recent years! This may end up as the strongest system on record in the SPac... '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 05:16, February 20, 2016 (UTC) :::::It's crazy how long-lived Winston managed to miss Fiji the first time as a strong tropical cyclone, then made a large loop and came back as the strongest tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere! The 185 mph storm, which looks absolutely stunning, seems to be passing directly between the two main islands. The eye being over water could actually be bad as it stops it from weakening. I hope damages there aren't too bad... although catastrophic damage is pretty much guarenteed... ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 05:21, February 20, 2016 (UTC) :::::::WOAH I did not expect this, I don't post as much here but I'm making an exception this time, because Winston just obtained the highest 1-minute sustained windspeed (185 mph) of any tropical cyclone on record in the southern Hemisphere, beating Zoe of 2002 (and Monica '06). However, 915 mbars is an unusually high pressure for a storm with winds that strong. This is also the strongest tropical cyclone to ever hit Fiji, eclipsing Evan of 2012, which raked across the northern part of the island as a cat 4. This could also eclipse Evan as the costliest natural disaster in the island nation's history, hopefully the death toll doesn't come to match. 'Ryan1000' 22:52, February 20, 2016 (UTC) HurricaneOdile | insert message here × × 14:39, February 24, 2016 (UTC) Wow, El Nino is really making itself known, with big storms like this. I hate to see these storms hit land at that strength. In other weather news, Pensacola, Florida was hit by a tornado that is tied for the strongest tornado of the year. Why do I bring this up? Because I live about 30 miles away, and was nearly I the path of it. In fact, the areas that received the most damage, I know EXACTLY where they are. Big cyclones, tornadoes, can the El Nino end already? Leeboy100Hello! 22:30, February 24, 2016 (UTC) : 500 million damage for a preliminary estimate, if that's correct then this is the SPac's costliest storm on record. 'Ryan1000' 21:29, February 25, 2016 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Winston It has dissipated. Winston was one of the most impressive SHem storms I've seen, but the damage was quite horrific. It's very rare for Fiji to be hit like that from TCs. Their lack of preparation for powerful cyclones was probably why it was such a devastating storm for the poor region. Winston will be remembered for a long time to come... '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 00:56, February 28, 2016 (UTC) 12P.YALO Tropical Cyclone Yalo Heading through a few islands out to sea, but this won't be anywhere near Winston in power. 'Ryan1000' 21:29, February 25, 2016 (UTC) Remnants of Yalo It has dissipated, along with Winston. This wasn't nearly as notable as its predecessor. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 00:57, February 28, 2016 (UTC) 18P.ZENA Severe Tropical Cyclone Zena just to not to miss this one --HurricaneOdile | insert message here × × 18:29, April 6, 2016 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance There are only 4 storms, but it's pretty likely we'll have a retiree or two at this point. Here's what I think: *Tuni - 0% - Brought some rain to a few islands, but nothing was notable. *Ula - 80% - I'm only putting it a bit high because the AUS and SPac regions have lower retirement standards than other places, even though it wasn't particularly damaging. *Victor - 0% - No known damage or deaths. *Winston - 100% - Winston has killed at least 42 people thus far, making it one of Fiji's deadliest cyclones on record, and damages are estimated to be near a billion USD, making this the costliest South Pacific cyclone in recorded history, more than twice the previous record set by Cyclone Val of 1991. So yeah, this is a guaranteed retirement. There's my stance. 'Ryan1000' 02:17, February 23, 2016 (UTC) Here are mine! *Tuni - 70% - 5 million dollars in damage is usually enough to retire a name in SHem. *Ula - 80% - Moved through the basin and caused a few deaths and "phenomenal" damage. Was intense and long-lived. This is enough to retire a name here.. *Victor - 0% - Fish storm but quite unfortunate it couldn't RI. *Winston - 200% - Katrina (SPac version), affected all countries in the basin. I personally think it was stronger than Pam atleast, probably even Zoe. *Yalo - -10% - What a Failicia. *Zena - 65% - Distrupted post-Winston relief efforts and also had effects in other countries. Should be retired *Amos - 75% - Further distruptupted post-Winston relief efforts and had bad effects in Samoan Archipelago. Also should be retired. 16:04, August 25, 2016 (UTC) Winston's historic upgrade Although I am not sure if anyone will ever read this post, I would like to report a significant modification that RSMC Nadi has recently made regarding Cyclone Winston's intensity. It turns out that Winston was ''much stronger than operationally reported. Initially, it was believed that the cyclone peaked at 125 knots (145 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 915 mbar (hPa). However, it now appears that the maximum intensity was 150 knots (175 mph) (10-minute sustained)/884 mbar (hPa) (The Wikipedia article on Winston cited this report as a source, but you will need to register on that website to view the best track data). In addition to now being the strongest storm of the 2015-16 Southern Pacific (SPAC) cyclone season by a significant margin, here are some other records Winston now holds: #Strongest SPAC and Southern Hemisphere (SHem) tropical cyclone on record (both exceeding Cyclone Zoe's 890 mbar reading in 2002) #Highest 10-minute winds reported in a SPAC tropical cyclone (exceeding the 135 knot (155 mph) reading from Cyclone Pam) #Highest 10-minute winds reported in any SHem tropical cyclone (exceeding the 135 knot reading from Pam, Orson and Monica of the Australian region, and Fantala of the South-West Indian Ocean) #'Highest 10-minute winds reported from any tropical cyclone (exceeding the 140 knot (160 mph) reading from Typhoon Tip)' #Third-strongest tropical cyclone worldwide outside of the Western Pacific (behind Hurricane Patricia's 872 mbar reading and Hurricane Wilma's 882 mbar reading) #Strongest-landfalling SPAC tropical cyclone on record (if not worldwide) (at peak intensity, 884 mbar (hPa)) #Costliest SPAC tropical cyclone on record ($1.4 billion (2016 USD)) Please feel free to include any other statistics that I may have missed. Also, while on the topic of Winston, I would also like to mention that both Cyclone Ula and Winston's names have been retired and replaced with Usa and Wanita, respectively, based on this document (scroll to page 20/74 to view the replacement names). Also, there have been no reports so far of any retired names from the Australian region from 2015-16 or 2016-17. AndrewTalk To Me 16:39, July 13, 2017 (UTC) : I had a feeling that Winston's operational 915 mbar pressure was way too high given it's incredible annular structure as it was approaching Fiji, but I didn't expect it to go so far as to being the strongest TC on record in the SHem, 6 mbars ahead of Zoe, let alone at landfall. However, regardling worldwide landfall intensity, Haiyan of 2013 was only estimated to have had an 895 mbar peak pressure from the JMA, and the official pressure of that storm was likely much lower than that (it was 858 mbars according to one unofficial JTWC reading, which would surpass Tip), so Haiyan could've had a much lower pressure at landfall than Winston, but it was never directly measured and few weather instruments could survive that kind of landfall intensity. Ryan1000 22:51, July 16, 2017 (UTC) :: Another update: Cyclone Mahima of 1899 (which struck Australia) may be the strongest SHem cyclone. A team of Queensland scientists has submitted WMO a report that Mahina had a pressure of 880 mbar. --'' JavaHurricane 08:45, September 18, 2019 (UTC)